For those who love a good horse race… this is it.
Thanks for updating based on the new surveys. But if you think Palin can take ID with 400,000 LDS in state (probably 80,000 registered voters and probably 70,000 GOP) you're missing the ball. I really don't like the whole religious identity thing, but ID is almost as LDS as UT, maybe more than WY. There were only 400,000 votes cast for McCain in the GENERAL, 85,000 cast in the primary, albeit it was held late (May 27th). But look at how well Romney does in NM, then add 35% LDS. It will make IA '08 look like a tight race. Just sayin'.
Also, based on NM, we would be equally suspicious of hard numbers in the remaining mountain and plain states.
Bottom line: Palin needs texas to win the nomination. I don't see any other pathway for her if she does not get Texas.
I have Palin leaning in Idaho for 5 reasons.1.Palin's Pac gets a lot of donations from Idaho. ( 2nd only to Alaska)2.Palin does well in the Northwest.3.Palin was born in idaho, and went to collage in Idaho. 4.Rural area.5.lots of libertarain's and hunters.
I will need to see more polling before I give Idaho to Romney.as of now I see it as a lean, Palin.
As a native Washingtonian (45 years), I think I get the Northwest better than many. My wife and Father are from ID. Washington and Oregon seem a very different kettle of fish. In fact, it changes pretty radically as soon as you cross the Cascades.In ID, Palin will win the panhandle 2 to 1. Romney will win the IF to TF triangle by 2 to 1. Romney will win more moderate Boise 7 to 6. Statewide Romney 56 to 44.
I think I agree with you on TX. I was very surprised by the sub-tabs, especially with the TX brand of Tea Partyism and conservatism.I'm not sure that Huck doesn't need TX even more, especially if he does as poorly outside the South as you project.It would be interesting to compare Palin's ID contributions to Romney's ID contributions. That would give you a better idea of the split.I said that Sarah will dominate the Panhandle. That part of the state is very like AK. IF to TF is very like UT outside of SLC. Boise is slightly more conservative than SLC.I just don't see any way to get enough non-LDS libertarians to and gun owners to overcome those 75,000 votes. Thanks for the info exchange.
So convenient that you suddenly introduce "toss up" states to your map the day Romney takes the lead in TX and NM.